MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ: MNKD)
Before we get to far into this article. For those who are going to email me saying “Afrezza is great, you’re wrong!” I get you. Honestly, I felt that way about the company for the majority of the past couple of years. However, at this point, I can’t stick by them anymore. Today, we’ll talk about why I held such a bullish opinion in the past, what’s changed, and what I’m expecting to see from MNKD ahead.
Why I Had Such A Bullish Opinion On MNKD
For quite a while I maintained a very bullish opinion on MannKind. This opinion was held even after massive declines in value, even after the company split ways with Sanofi, and even after the copany’s own launch of Afrezza. So, why did I have such a bullish opinion?
While I’m not a doctor, and do not understand diabetes to the level that they do, I do have a good understanding of what it is, and how it’s treated. When it was announced that an inhaled insulin would be hitting the market, I was excited. After all, from what I did know, certain types of diabetics required insulin injections regularly, and that would be no fun. Being able to inhale the insulin would be great.
I thought to myself, this is going to be perfect for the pediatric diabetics community, I thought it would be great for diabetics who work in areas without access to public restrooms. This would even be great for those with a fear of needles. I thought to myself, this is going to be the goose that lays the golden egg!
Why That Opinion Has Changed
As mentioned above, for the vast majority of the past couple of years, I’ve held a bullish opinion of what we could expect to see from MNKD. And, I’ll be the first to tell you that my opinion was wrong! The reason I held such an opinion had to do with the fact that there was still a possibility following a valid excuse for failure, until recently.
Think about it. The first launch failed. I, like most bulls blamed the failure on Sanofi and their unwillingness to properly promote the treatment. MNKD didn’t have control, and therefore, could do nothing. When the companies split ways, I cheered as I waited for the second commercialization effort.
When the second commercialization effort went off to a rough start, I thought, give it time, it will be alright! However, I was also very honest with myself. I knew that at some point, sales had to climb and that the company needs tens of thousands of active subscriptions to reach neutral sustainability. Now, with just over 300 prescriptions, I have come to grips with the fact that MannKind simply is no longer a strong investment option.
What I’m Expecting To See Ahead
Moving forward, I have a relatively bearish opinion of what we can expect to see from MannKind. At the end of the day, the company has a great product, but has proven an inability to successfully bring that product to the market. As a result, financial reports will likely continue to get worse, leaving investors unsettled and ultimately leading to further declines in the value of MNKD shares.
What Do You Think?
Where do you think MNKD is headed moving forward? Join the discussion in the comments below!